SchusterWatch #782 (4/7/2025)
IPOX® 100 U.S. (ETF: FPX) hits 8-month low on tariffs, spike in equity risk.
Relative Upside: IPOX® Canada, China, 7% Divi, Nordic and GNDX.
U.S. IPO M&A picks up as Rocket Co. (RKT US) buys Mr. Cooper (COOP US).
Rout in global equities derails key IPOs: eToro, Klarna, StubHub.
IPOX® WEEKLY REVIEW: The IPOX® Indexes followed benchmarks sharply lower during a watershed week for global trade and markets as equity risk (VIX: +109.28%) doubled, U.S. yields plunged, the U.S. dollar gyrated amid good monthly U.S. unemployement numbers and no immediate signs of rate cuts ahead of U.S. earnings. Select IPOX® Indexes recorded notable relative upside.
In the U.S., the IPOX® 100 U.S. (ETF: FPX) fell to -16.97% YTD (-3.87% Y/Y), closing the week at the lowest level since Sep. 6, 2024 and slightly lagging the benchmarks. 98/100 portfolio holdings finishing the week in negative territory, with the average (equally-weighted) portfolio holding shedding -10.42% (-9.85%), better than when compared to the applied market-cap weighted index. Unseasoned and trade sensitive exposure ranked towards the bottom, including hardware maker Sandisk (SNDK US: -38.51%), medical devices focused GE Healthcare (GEHC US: -24.37%) and missiles maker Karman (KRMN US: -20.24%). Big selling in top holdings including AI-play Palantir Technologies (PLTR US: -13.79%) and heavily shorted AI solutions provider / Tiktok bidder Applovin (APP US: -19.46%). On a positive note, mortgage finance provider Mr. Cooper (COOP US: +28.44%) ranked on top, soaring after receiving a buy-out offer led by Detroit-based serial IPO acquirer former IPO Rocket Cos. (RKT US: +18.19%).
Amid a second week of IPO M&A activity across our universe (AZEK and COOP), we note strong relative returns of our IPOX® Growth Infusion (GNDX) Portfolio. The strategy, which focuses on modelling the largest and best performing acquirers of members in our broad IPOX® U.S. Composite (IPXC), extended its relative lead vs. the S&P 500 (SPX) and S&P 500 Equal Weighted (SPW) to +236 bps. and +126 bps. since its March 21, 2025 rebalancing event, respectively.
Non-U.S. domiciled stocks pooled in respective IPOX® Indexes traded mixed vs. the benchmarks last week. Amongst the universe of Canada-domiciled stocks, e.g., the IPOX® Canada (ICDX) fell to -5.61% YTD (+14.77% Y/Y), while the Candadian market declined to -6.11% YTD (+5.11% YTD) with firms including Definity Financial (DFY CN: -2.40%) recording notabel relative strenght, despite the sell-down in Swiss Re’s 10.05% stake in the company.
While U.S.-traded stocks of European companies continued to heavily pressure the IPOX® 100 Europe (ETF: FPXE), the IPOX® Global Nordic (IPND) extended its relative YTD and Y/Y lead vs. the Nordic markets last week. Positive movers here included Swedish housing platform operator Hemnet (HEM SS: +7.62%) and key Nordic IPO M&A consumer staple Orkla (ORK NO: +0.79%). We also note relative strenght in the IPOX® High Dividend 7% Strategy (IXSM) which advanced vs. its lower yielding benchmark into the week-end.
Across Asia-Pacific, a good week for select Saudi-traded portfolio holdings such as Industrial Riyadh Cables (RIYADHCA AB: +1.10%) and IT Services Provider Arabian Internet (SOLUTION AB: +0.72%) helped to mitigate more losses from some of the Abu Dhabi-domiciled index holdings (ADNOC entities), with MENA IPO benchmark IPOX® MENA (IPEV) declining to -9.87% YTD (-6.48% Y/Y).
Amid the turmoil in global equities, the IPOX® Global China (CNI) remained the best performing IPOX® Portfolio. Here, toy maker heavyweight Pop Mart (9992 HK: +6.14%) and soaring biotech SKB (6990 HK: +6.11%) traded higher again on buying by Mainland Chinese investors after earnings and product updates drove more upgrades.
THE IPOX® SPAC INDEX: The Index declined to –21.77% YTD (-18.39 Y/Y) last week. Big liquidation-driven selling in key names including electrical power equipment maker Vertiv (VRT US: -19.99%), tele-health platform operator Hims & Hers (HIMS US: -10.81%) or quantum computing play IT services provider IonQ (IONQ US: -9.50%) continued to weigh on portfolio performance. No SPACs completed a business combination or launched in the U.S. during last week.
GLOBAL ECM REVIEW AND OUTLOOK: 22 accessible companies went public across the global trading regions last week, raising a total of $1.34 billion, with the average listing gaining +33.31% from offer price to Friday's close (median: +6.00%). The largest deal of last week belonged to the well-received $810 million U.S. listing of Smartstop Self Storage REIT (SMA US: +9.63%). Other notable debuts included U.S. media firm loss-making Newsmax (NMAX US: +350.00%, $75m), which initially skyrocketed amid hugely volatile post-IPO trading, while Nordic infrastructure company GRK Infra (GRK FH: -4.55%, $33m) launched in Finland. Amid ongoing market volatility, evidenced by the reported postponement of high-profile IPO candidates such as retail trading platform eToro, fintech Klarna and ticket markets place Stubhub due to market declines and the big spike in risk – a topic discussed by IPOX® Analyst Lukas Muehlbauer in a recent Reuters article – deals lined up for this week include Swedish high-voltage systems provider Nodica Group (NODICA SS, $54m), Singapore-based oil & gas equipment maker OMS Energy Technologies (OMSE US, $50m), and Chinese EV battery firm Zenergy Battery Tech (3677 HK, $129m).
Visit the IPOX® Calendar for this week’s listing overview and read
The IPOX® Update for the latest IPO News.
